Church attendance in America is being propped up by one unusually large generation: the Baby Boomers. That is not conjecture. It is a demographic reality.
Ryan Burge’s analysis of denominational age structures shows that Boomers comprise roughly 40–50% of adult membership in many Protestant denominations, even though they represent only about 20% of the U.S. adult population. In other words, Boomers are about twice as prominent in churches as they are in society at large. This imbalance explains why many congregations feel relatively stable today. But it also explains why that stability is temporary.
The Illusion of Stability: Slow Erosion Leads to a Landslide
For years, denominations and churches have experienced slow erosion. Attendance dips a little. Membership rolls shrink incrementally. But the institutions remain seaworthy. That is the lull.
The current moment is not evidence of sustainable stability. It is evidence of demographic inertia. A large generation is still
