Ten Traits of the Healthiest Churches Ten Years from Now

I am not a prophet.

Please don’t stone me if I get one of these ten traits wrong.

And while there is a good bit of subjectivity in this article, I think I am basing my projections on clear and evident trends.

So, what if we could look into the future ten years from now, and see the characteristics of the healthiest churches in America? Would you be willing to make changes now? Take a look.

  1. They have the same pastor they did ten years ago. Pastors, the greenest grass may be the church you serve right now. Church members, quit nitpicking and complaining to pastors so much that they can’t wait to leave.
  2. The pastor, staff, and church members have a decade of calling to the local community. They are not just called to the church; they are called to the community the church is intended to serve. They would have loved and served the community for ten years.
  3. The church will be as diverse as the community. Look at your demographics now and the projected demographics ten years from now. How diverse is your church?
  4. The church will have responded to its international mission field in its own backyard for ten years. The world is coming to America. What is your church doing to reach different people groups in your community? Try sponsoring an ESL (English as a Second Language) class. Watch the world come to you.
  5. The church will have had a consistent and strategic outward focus for a decade. The leadership of the church consistently and persistently leads the congregation in outwardly focused ministries and evangelism.
  6. All new members the past ten years will have attended a new members’ class. They will thus not only have information about the church; they will have heard expectations of how they are to serve, minister, and give in the church.
  7. The church will have seen the cultural changes of the decade as opportunities rather than threats. Rather than ranting every time culture takes a shift away from Christianity, these churches will have used the changes as opportunities to share the gospel and minister.
  8. At least 80 percent of the worship attendance will have moved to a small group over the decade. For ten years, leadership in the church will have been highly intentional about moving people to small groups. As a result, assimilation will be at an all-time high.
  9. At least 50 percent of the attendance will have invited at least four people to church each year. Over ten years, a church of 200 in attendance will thus have invited 4,000 people or families to church.
  10. Every year for ten years these churches will have become more joyous and fun. Church bullies, curmudgeons, control freaks, and critics will not like these churches. The people will just be too happy for their tastes.

Ten years may seem like a long time to some. But it’s really the blink of an eye.

What will your church look like in ten years?

Let me hear from you.

Posted on July 11, 2016


With nearly 40 years of ministry experience, Thom Rainer has spent a lifetime committed to the growth and health of local churches across North America.
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77 Comments

  • Working in church revitalization I hope that this will be what a healthy church looks like in ten years. This was a great post!

  • Casey Whittier says on

    While I absolutely agree with 9 of the 10, I wonder why the requirement for “small groups” is in this same tier. While small groups seem trendy and many churches are emphasizing it, I’m not sure it is truly crcital for long-term success. It seems that if a church had all the elements of success but no particular emphasis on small groups, it would still be successful. And if not, my guess is the real problem isn’t really the lack of small group emphasis. Just my two cents.

    • David Clegg says on

      Isn’t Sunday School, by definition, a small group? It just meets on campus.

      • That’s pretty much how I see it. People knock the way Sunday School was done in the 1950’s, but much of modern church growth theory and small group ministry is based on the same principles. True, some churches have chosen to give their Sunday School snappier names like “Life Groups” or something, and I have no quarrel with that. It’s the principles that are important, not the name.

    • Thom Rainer says on

      Casey –

      Someone who is in a small group or Sunday school class is five times more likely to remain active in the church than someone who is worship services alone. It’s not trendy. It’s been around a few centuries.

      • At my church we currently have a large number of people who come to worship service, but I can’t seem to get them involved in Sunday School / small groups. I’ve emphasized the importance of small groups time and again from the pulpit, but they still won’t do it. Do you think you could write a blog about that sometime – i.e., how to assimilate worship attenders into small groups?

  • Thank you for these great insights and for your ministry to the church.
    Looking forward to the next ten years!

  • “Church bullies, curmudgeons, control freaks, and critics will not like these churches. The people will just be too happy for their tastes.” You are absolutely correct. The joyful, happy, Christ-like, and Spirit-filled believers must outnumber such church members. Congregations also need leadership that is willing to lovingly, but firmly confront church bullies letting them know their boorish behavior will not be tolerated.

    Congregations have a tough road ahead as nice people are rarely willing to confront tyrants – who can blame them?

    Thanks for the post – very insightful.

  • Robert Berman says on

    Notably missing from these traits of healthy churches is any mention of the means of grace appointed by God for the health of his Church. So how about:

    11) The whole counsel of God in Scripture has been preached faithfully, exegetically, and Christocentrically for ten years, teaching the people to value, study, and live out the Word of God in their everyday lives. Scripture memorization will be valued and will come naturally to those immersed in Bible study as a primary source of satisfaction.

    12) The congregation will have become convicted that prayer is essential to their individual and corporate health and mission. They will seize every opportunity to petition the Father for the wisdom to know his will and the fortitude to follow it sacrificially.

    13) The congregation will be known as a church which worships God with an eye for what he desires, not putting their own pleasurable practices in the forefront. Music and especially musical performance will not be idolized. The Lord’s Supper and Baptism will have been observed joyfully, not as rote rituals to check off the list.

    • Robert –

      See my comment to Josh Phillips.

      • Robert Berman says on

        Thank you. I do agree with your partial list of important horizontal (i.e. among men) elements of church life. I just wanted to be sure that the vertical (i.e. God-directed) elements of church life were not overlooked. “A priori assumptions” have a way of being forgotten if not intentionally and regularly emphasized, and none of us want that.

  • #3 As diverse as the community.
    That’s a problem when 80% of your current congregation is over 65 and wants the church to “go back like it was in the good old days’
    I think we have to wait them out and then rebuild like a church plant.

    • Thom Rainer says on

      That will indeed be the case in many churches, Russ.

    • Sorry Russ, I have to disagree. I’m a little tired of old people bashing. I believe that a good leader understands where his people are, loves them and then patiently leads them to where they need to be. I think the biggest problem in the church is not old people who don’t want to change but pastors who want instant change and have no real leadership skills. The best thing about this blog is getting leaders to take a long term view of ministry instead of a 1 year view. I know this reads like a harsh reply but I’m writing as one who has made all these mistakes.

      • It’s not always a leadership issue. Sometimes even saints can get stuck in their ways and not want to change. No matter how loving and patient you are.

      • Phil Hoover says on

        As one of the “older” people in a congregation (I’m in my mid-50s), I don’t mind “change”–if it occurs gradually, and it doesn’t leave ANYONE out. One of the HUGE errors of the “post-modern” church is to disregard the older saints–the very people who have made sure the congregation was there in the first place. These are the people who have sacrificed, taken 2nd mortgages on their homes, and have given waaay above their tithes–to make sure God’s work continued in their communities. They should never be disregarded. They should always be included, and should always know that “they matter.” (This is not an endorsement for the “elderly” or any other group to be allowed the position of “church boss(es)”)…Every demographic in the local church should know “they matter.” It’s much easier said than done.

      • Phil, mid fifties is young in our congregation. We have more than one WWII era family very resistant to the new normal in our community.

      • Christopher says on

        So, in other words, they’ve “paid their dues” and so they should get first consideration. I would hope that the older generation would be mature enough in their faith to joyfully give up their preferences for the sake of the gospel.

      • Douglas Rudder says on

        And I would hope that the younger generation would become mature enough to remember that their preferences are not necessarily better than the older generations (I’m in my 40s).

        We are warned consistently in Scripture (Old and New Testaments) not to conform to the world, not to emulate the world. We need to carefully consider all changes we make in light of the Word and the abysmal state of the world around us.

        I just recently heard one of our Deacons (in his 70s) state “The world is evolving; the church needs to evolve with it” as a reason to be more like the world in church. That can be rephrased “The world is going down the toilet; the church needs to go down with it.”

        We need to be careful not to use the idea of “modernizing” to rationalize “anything goes”. We do not need to be like the world to reach the world. The church was not placed in this world as an entertainment venue. Honestly, I fear the day when the “over 65s” are gone, because they often provide a spiritual reverence and stability that is sadly missing amongst much (but not all) of the younger generation.

        We simply need to preach the Word of God faithfully. God’s Word never returns void. We need to go out in the community and witness, both with our lives and our words.

        It seems like we have come to rely so much on shows, programs, and cultural assimilation (look at the children of Israel in the Old Testament to see how that worked out for them) that we forget to rely on the Lord Jesus Christ.

        We also need to remember that discipleship is just as important as evangelism. Both are part of the Great Commission and vital to spiritual growth and the health of the church.

      • Christopher says on

        First of all, as supposedly older Christians, not just older people, I would expect them to be more mature in their faith than someone who became a Christian last year. It is completely unreasonable to expect young Christians to show more maturity than those who have been Christians for fifty years.

        Second, necessary change is not the same thing as emulating the world. Learning someone’s language so that you can communicate the Gospel to them is not following the world down the toilet. Furthermore, many older people want the church to emulate the world – they just want it to emulate the world of the 1950’s.

      • Doug Rudder says on

        Christopher, that is why I said “would become” mature enough. When speaking of young adults, there is no reason why they can’t learn to respect others as they want to be respected themselves. This applies to older adults as well. Unfortunately, today’s culture does not teach respect for others–or even self-respect–to children growing up. It is a sad state. I hope the church and step up to the plate and help them learn. Not bludgeon them, but nurture them (gently and with humility, but not afraid to be more direct when needed).

        When it comes to worldliness, you are totally correct that learning other languages does not fall into that category at all. My grandparents were missionaries in the Congo in the 1950s; my mom spent most of her teen years living in a mud hut reaching people for the Lord.

        I’m speaking more in terms of picking whatever happens to become popular with the world–no matter how ungodly–slapping the word “Christian” on it, and declaring it to be okay. Sometimes we get so caught up with impressing or becoming acceptable to the world, that we lose sight of the holiness that God intends for His people as expressed in His Word.

        There is room for growth in both young and old. We need to find the right balance, not just dismiss the needs of either side out of hand.

      • Jeffery, is 12 yrs enough ? I’m sorry if it came across as bashing, not intended, but it is, in our case very true.

      • Christopher says on

        The problem with your seemingly reasonable approach is that many churches are on the brink of dying and simply don’t have time for a pastor to patiently lead a congregation to make changes that should have been made twenty years ago. Furthermore, with how fast our society is changing around us, a church that employs the “gradual change” approach will only fall further and further behind, becoming increasingly irrelevant.

      • The problem with your argument is that many younger pastors use this “we don’t have time” routine as an excuse to force their own agenda. I believe patience is a fruit of the Spirit, is it not?

      • Christopher says on

        As with everything, that goes both ways. How many older congregations become “impatient” with a younger pastor who can objectively see the short comings of the church and the urgency needed to change direction.

        The bottom line of this whole “older” vs. “younger” argument is: Are you making disciples or not? If your church is making disciples with a1950’s style approach, then more power to ya. But the fact is churches are dying all around us and the number one reason is a refusal to change. You can throw out all the “respect your elders” and “learn from the old ways” arguments you want but none of it will change the fact that the church is dying. And what is truly sad is that many older people in churches understand that fact, they just don’t care.

      • Yes, it does go both ways, and that was precisely my point in my reply to you. I don’t know what your church situation is, but I believe much of our modern church culture is cultivating a very negative attitude towards older members, and that may come back to haunt us one day. If the Lord delays His coming, someday you will be one of those older people.

      • Christopher says on

        Church culture does not have to cultivate a negative attitude toward older members – the older members are doing a pretty good job of that themselves.

      • Ken I agree with you. I attended a great Church for close to ten years. The pastor decided to change the style of the services to be seeker friendly. He did not even try to explain why, or to get us to understand his vision for the church. In the end the church split because he was a poor leader.

    • Stephen says on

      Some of our mainstream churches are not prepared to handle and accept new visitors…especially if they are people of color. I visited a few churches in the Midwest in which I am the only person of color. The members did not know how to engage with me. From their looks, they felt uncomfortable and so was I. I don’t think the Kingdom of God is like this. The Kingdom of God is more diverse.

  • Mark Heil says on

    Churches that are healthy 10 years from now will have moved steadily FORWARD for the last decade. One of the best podcast lines ever- ” if the 1950’s ever come back, there are plenty of churches ready”

    • Thom Rainer says on

      Well said, Mark.

    • Phil Hoover says on

      But just remember, the “1950s” helped to get us where we are today. If we did a survey of the 1950s, I’m sure we’d find MORE people tithing, far more regularly church attendance, and probably a lot of things that we have forgotten about in all of our contemporariness.

      No normal person (or church) walks backwards–but sometimes we learn a lot when we look back, for a short while.

      • Good point. Certainly it would be foolish for us to do everything exactly like they did in the 1950’s, but that doesn’t mean there’s nothing to learn from that decade. For one thing, Southern Baptists understood the mechanics of Sunday School as an outreach tool. Does anyone remember the “Million More in ’54” campaign? I wasn’t around then, but I’ve read about it. It’s no coincidence that Southern Baptists saw some of their greatest growth in that decade. My own church has been getting back to some basic principles of Sunday School in the last year, and we’ve seen some growth as a result.

  • Number 6 is critical for a few reasons.

    1.) In smaller SBC churches, it’s too easy to join the church. By this I mean a person can walk the aisle during an invitation during a worship service, request to join by statement or transfer of letter, and the church votes right then and there. Often times the pastor and the congregation has little or no idea who they just voted in as a member.

    2.) Those who are new believers who have had little if no experience in a church will have a lot of their questions answered. They will get to know the pastor and/or staff as well. This will put them at ease while the church assimilates them into the body.

    3.) Many times people who join a church have expectations of what a church should be like and what a church should do for them. They will hang around for a while but when the church doesn’t meet their standard, they bolt out the door. This is the problem in consumerism that has infiltrated the church. As you said in number 6, the new member’s class will clearly outline not just the information about the church but also what is expected from a member.

    4.) When you join a gym or become a part of an organization, there is usually some type of orientation or a “preview day” done BEFORE you commit to being a part. It’s important to know what you’re becoming a part of before you decide to join. I understand that we follow God’s lead when we are looking for His place of service, but it’s critical to know as much info as you can before joining.

    4.) This class in many churches is often required before membership can be attained, which is a good thing. It helps the prospective members and the church leadership at the same time. This protects the church from wolves in sheep’s clothing and also allows an “out” for people who discover that the church isn’t the specific one God is calling them to.

    Number 7 on your list is a home run.

  • As a pastor who is just six months into my latest pastoral ministry, this gives me some great goals to work toward. Thank you for these practical insights.

  • Keith Teague says on

    How will the people who have been a part of this church for 10 years grow in the word as a result of this 10 point focus?
    Where does obedience to the word fit in?

    • Josh Phillips says on

      I assume that is implied as all of these things would be the outflow of a church that is obedient to the Word.

      • Thom Rainer says on

        Josh –

        You are exactly right. There are so many things I could include but a short blog post does not afford room for “a priori” assumptions. I could have included:

        — preaching of the Word
        — teaching of the Word
        — daily reading of the Word
        — corporate prayer
        — concerted prayer
        — fasting
        — sharing of the gospel
        — feeding the hungry
        — clothing those who do not have sufficient clothing
        — visiting those in prison
        — intentional Christian koinonia
        — singing and praising in corporate worship
        — equipping believers to do the work of ministry
        — strategic disciple making

        But, now I’ve started another list where some commenters could remind me what I have omitted.

        My brief blog posts are meant to focus on a few key items. Thank you for recognizing that reality.

      • YES … concerted AND corporate prayer, if that prayer is hope-filled, outward-focused, and asking the Spirit to transform us from anticipating people-who-look-and-cook-like-us to welcoming persons of different countries and cultures into every segment of our congregation (including leadership as they demonstrate biblical fidelity and gifting).

        Phil

    • Agreed. These 10 points are shallow.

      • John –

        Thank you for your discouragement. Please see my comments to Josh Phillips.

      • Phil Hoover says on

        I don’t believe the points are shallow at all. As a parishioner (48 of my 54 years in a local church somewhere), I find these as excellent signs of what a healthy congregation will look like. Particularly important (in my environment) is the “long term pastorate.” I’m part of a congregation that has a 93-year history–however, the longest pastorate has never been more than 7 years. This needs to stop, and stop quickly.

        I so appreciate Thom Ranier’s posts. I don’t agree with everything, but then again, if I were doing this, he probably wouldn’t agree with everything either. HOWEVER, this post, in my opinion, nails it.

      • Thanks so much, Phil. And you are not alone. My wife doesn’t agree with everything I write either!

    • Thom Rainer says on

      Keith –

      See my comment to Josh Phillips.

  • Thom, I think that these are sign a of healthy churches now. My church is trying to be this way now.

    Especially important is the new members class which sets expectations and responsibilities for new people. A strong emphasis on small groups must start there and continue in the pulpit.

    These are great actionable goals. Thanks for the information.

    Doug

    • Thom Rainer says on

      Thanks so much, Doug. My prayers for you and your church as you move forward.

      • No mention of growing in the Word of God…and I question making fun a goal of the local church…joy, yes….fun ?

  • #7 by itself will be a huge win!

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