In the blink of an eye, ten years will pass. The pace of change is staggering, and there is no reason to believe the pace will slow down. In the comments on my blog post last week on growth rates among churches the previous ten years, a prescient reader asked me to look forward. “What do you think a healthy church will look like in 2029,” he asked.
I am grateful for his question. And though I can’t know with precision the shape of our churches in ten years, I do see some outliers and trends pointing us toward some key directions. Let me take those signposts and fast forward ten years.
Keep in mind, these changes are representative of the healthy churches in 2029. I may deal with the unhealthy churches in another post.
- There will be a high intentionality of evangelism and gospel presence. We passed through the phase of programmatic evangelism without much impact. We are presently in the stage of non-intentionality, and our low-conversion churches reflect that reality. Healthy churches will be highly intentional about evangelism without it being program-driven.
- These churches will be favored in the community. Someone recently asked me if most churches had a negative reputation in their communities. I told her no, that most churches have no reputation in their communities. The healthy church in 2029 will seek see the community as a place to serve and minister, rather than a pool of prospects to increase attendance. Look also for neighborhood churches to increase their impact in communities.
- The majority of healthy churches will be multi-site, multi-venue, or multi-day. They will learn the lessons of the 19th century churches that moved worship services to 11 am to accommodate the farmers in an agricultural culture. As long as we don’t compromise biblical truths, we need to reach people where they are. More of them are working or unavailable on Sunday mornings. Will we move out of the 19th century to get to 2029?
- The digital church will be clearly defined. Today, we debate about the digital church. Is the online church really a church? By 2029, healthy churches will have settled that issue. I anticipate the digital church will be viewed as a vital and complementary component to the in-person church.
- Healthy churches will not have members holding the congregation back for sacred cows and traditions. The members of the healthy churches will embrace change rather than fight it. They will be more concerned about the gospel in the community rather than the style of music in the sanctuary. Change-resistant members will move to unhealthy and dying churches where they will exacerbate the sickness and speed the process of dying.
- Most worship gatherings of healthy churches will be 200 and under. Even the large churches will have smaller worship gatherings; they will just have more of them. As noted in number three above, one of the biggest changes will be worship services on times and days other than Sunday morning.
- Churches will feel more connected within networks rather than denominations. Churches will not have to choose between the two, but they will likely spend more of their energies in networks. Denominations will continue to be the doctrinal identity of many churches, but networks will become the functional identity. Denominations and their respective entities will be wise to create networks or connect with existing networks.
- Healthy churches in 2029 will become more innovative in how they utilize their facilities. Most congregations don’t come close to utilizing their facilities effectively today. The lack of usage throughout the week is terrible stewardship. Many healthy churches will figure out ways to partner with community businesses and organizations with their facilities.
- Healthy churches will be part of a groups revolution. Though the name will be different and the functions not identical, we will likely see a growth in the staff position that historically was called minister of education. This staff person, whether full-time, part-time, or volunteer, will become the key leader to seek to move as many members to groups as possible.
- Corporate prayer will be central to the healthy church in 2029. Church leaders and members will figure out how to move prayer from the fringes of poorly-attended gatherings reading a list of who is sick, to powerful and Spirit-empowered corporate prayer. As culture turns more negative against Christianity and churches, we must have God’s power to respond.
With the obvious exception of biblical truth, churches must change or die. Where is your church today? Where do you think it will be in ten years?
Posted on June 10, 2019
With nearly 40 years of ministry experience, Thom Rainer has spent a lifetime committed to the growth and health of local churches across North America.
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26 Comments
Thanks, But I think by 2030 we will have Home Churches like the ones when the Church was first born and then for the first 100 years of so. I am a Southern Baptist pastor for the pass 28 years. Over those years I have seen changes come and go with in the Southern Baptist Convention. But with things happening right now and many of these things have been on the back burners are now right up in front. These people coming out of our seminaries, with two of them teaching things that can not stand up to what the Bible is truly teaching. Then you have a company that is in line with these seminaries and putting out Sunday School teaching programs that is and well be even more as the years go by things that are far and away what the Bible saids. Yes, the time has come I believe for the home churches to come to the for front and start taking the places where Christians will still be able to hear the real truth and what God is saying. Also Christians are going to have to ask God more and more when He is saying, reading God Word and not take any teaching without knowing and asking for God to help them what His Truth ready is. We are living in the time of Jude, there are a lot of wolf’s in the church today, We need God’s help more than ever to spot the Wolf’s.
I agree about the direction that churches are growing. My question is how this will affect those of us in specialized ministries such as preschool, children youth. Some I can see transitioning into discipleship or family ministries along with church administration but do u see attitudes changing towards women in positions of Discipleship pastors in conservative churches? A church that has 200 in attendance can’t maintain even a medium size part-time staff and remain financially healthy. Will we see with a decline in staff positions see a decline of the seminaries?
Excellent!
I appreciate a lot being said here but I am convinced an important element of a healthy church is left out. The preaching by the pastor from the Pulpit. Weak in Bible content, often extremely short in length, boring sermons has killed thousands of Churches. Historically great sermons from great expositors has been used by the Holy Spirit to bring about revival. There is a Famine in the Land as in the days of Amos. Far too many pastors spend the lion’s share of their time doing many things & have little time left to pray & put the necessary time into sermon construction. In many churches some are starving & know it & some are starving & don’t even know it. The pulpit is the elephant in the room we avoid talking about. When a man leaves college there is no professor looking over his shoulder saying, ” study hard, good preaching is important.” But it certainly is.
I must say I agree with Chris. In ten years, most “healthy” churches will be marrying gay couples and using transgender pronouns. We’ve caved on every cultural conflict the past 50 years.
In 10 years? A LOT will have probably changed…
There will likely be no more tax deductibility of offerings nor will ‘recognized’ churches be tax exempt.
Healthy churches will no longer likely be ‘approved’ by governing authorities.
If these things come to pass, our current church model and leaders of today will be under extreme stress. Will today’s average church attender (and leader!) be prepared and able to cope without undergoing a crisis of faith?
Most churches will adapt and go along with the governing authorities.
I find it interesting that 8 out of 10 points are simply about adjusting a business model to fit current culture. Even point 1 could arguably be put into this category.
The purpose of the church is to glorify God by making disciples of Jesus Christ. This is accomplished through worship, nurture, and outreach with total commitment to the preaching and application of God’s Word. If that’s your focus, you’re a healthy church.
“Biblical church growth is a spiritual thing–and sustaining it is an organizational administration thing.”
In other words, even if the Spirit ceases to move, if we have the right administration we can keep this baby goin’ for years.
” . . . and . . .”
Reading comprehension may increase during the coming decade . . .
Sadly, Biblical comprehension seems to be on the way out.
But hey, you can always replace it with “organizational administration”
You said it yourself above: According to the Holy Bible, the functional imperatives of the New Testament church are integration, motivation, adaptation, and goal achievement; local congregations practicing those things, led by the Holy Spirit as you said, experience health–and may see biblical growth. I totally agree with what you said, brother 🙂
Except you do not understand that that is what you said. Look it up yourself.
To be serious for a moment, the divide here is pretty simple. It’s all about focus: You focus on what man does with all of your ridiculous, condescending, elitist business terminology that could be found in any two dollar paperback written by some business guru wanna be who never cracked a Bible. Instead we have to focus on what God does which is what worship, nurture, and outreach is all about.
You remind me of the pastor who preaches a 50 minute sermon all about strategies for a fulfilled life or an effective church but never once mentions Jesus and His sacrifice. At the heart of it the only principals that matter are the cross and the empty grave, in other words, the sacrifice and the Lordship of Christ. Focus on that and God will take care of everything else.
The reason churches struggle today has nothing to do with “organizational administration.” Churches struggle because they are not focused on Jesus Christ.
Christopher:
I haven’t said that what you’ve typed about church growth is wrong (your attitude, though, appears to be a rude and embittered–not a prophetic–one; God help you with that, brother); what you’ve typed agrees with everything I’ve typed, but apparently your lack of acquaintance with terms and concepts prevents you from understanding that it does. Again: the sustained growth of local churches is a spiritual–and an administrative–thing.
Let me know if you want Andy Anderson’s Growth Spiral book, for free 🙂 This conversation, hosted by Thom here, otherwise should be done (but I think Thom wouldn’t mind your reading this related info about his well-respected LifeWay/BSSB predecessor Andy: http://www.bpnews.net/12136/sunday-school-innovator-andy-anderson-dies-at-74).
Blessings to you, brother.
GOD help Christ Jesus’ Church world wide.
“And he said unto them, Go ye into all the world, and preach the gospel to every creature.” Mark 16:15
To be in Christ Jesus’ will, those called to the ministry should “Go”, outside the Church and into the world and preach the gospel to everyone. Many stay inside the Church that pays them and wait for George to “Go” outside of the Church walls and invite the lost inside. This is clearly not working. All members need to witness “one on one,” especially Church Staffers.
Denominations will likely split to some extent along partisan lines. In healthy churches, the leadership will be people who don’t just represent factions and more accepting of all people and not just a select few. In healthy churches, the “young adult” title will go away in favor of just Christian and everyone will be allowed to contribute in whatever way they can.
I think many (most?) churches will choose to die.
I pray not, Larry.
I think there is a hunger for God that many don’t even realize what it is their soul is searching. All of this transgender, trans fluid, who am I type of thinking is actually people knowing they need something in their lives but don’t understand that their souls yearn for God. So they turn to the newest fad and join in, in hopes they can satisfy a longing that they don’t even understand themselves. As Christians we must love those seeking and put ourselves out for them, not because we are any better, we are all sinners, but because we are saved. The church will grow because people need to turn back to God.
Unless leaders (paid or volunteer) of local congregations become much smarter about church adminidtration during the next decade, I doubt most of the ten characteristics will emerge–or be sustained, certainly–among a majority of congregations. Biblical church growth is a spiritual thing–and sustaining it is an organizational administration thing. But I do like the part about a resurgence in employment of Minister of Education (or equivalent title with exact same church growth-related duties) types in the next ten years!–Why wait that long? Make the next staff hiring an ME, even if the only vacancy currently is that of Senior Pastor 🙂
Research: the organizational health of purposeful people-groups of all sizes results from the integration, motivation, adaptation, and goal achievement of members of those groups by their leaders (and the four basic steps repeated continually). That’s all–not easy, but simple.
Yes, Paul wrote extensively about the importance of organizational administration.
More than you know 🙂
“Research: the organizational health of purposeful people-groups of all sizes results from the integration, motivation, adaptation, and goal achievement of members of those groups by their leaders (and the four basic steps repeated continually). That’s all–not easy, but simple.”
Translation: Blah, blah, blah… run the church like a business… blah, blah, blah… run the church like a business…
If the choice is attend to the advice of Christopher or to that of Dr. Andy Anderson (Church Growth Spiral), I would encorage readers here to listen to Andy–who traveled 200,000 miles per year for 15 years as a BSSB/LifeWay employee teaching churches by the thousands from the Scriptures
how God grows local congregations–and it wasn’t by ignoring administrative functions. I will mail to you one of his books for free, and you can read it for yourself.