Dad told me they were tornado clouds.
I was a kid in the 1960s when he uttered those words. I was too young to realize that we might be facing a potential threat. The technology that could confirm his prediction did not exist. I have vague memories of the clouds having a different tint than typical clouds, but nothing else pointed toward the possibility that a tornado was on the way.
Dad was right. The clouds produced more than one tornado. We were fortunate that the tornadoes did not get too close to my hometown. But I will not forget his warning that a major storm was on the way.
Storm Clouds or New Opportunities?
There seems to be a convergence of issues that could have a profound effect on churches in 2025. Frankly, I could name at least a dozen issues, but these five seem to be the most likely. Their magnitude could be significant as well.
As I will note, these developments are not necessarily storm clouds. On the contrary, there are some potential God-given opportunities for wise church leaders to embrace.
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- Greater receptivity to the gospel by Gen Z. Those young adults and teenagers born between 1997 and 2012 comprise the group commonly known as Gen Z. Our research at Church Answers, as well as work done by Ryan Burge and others, at least implies that Gen Z is more receptive to the gospel. I cannot overstate how great this opportunity is. Over a year ago, we introduced The Hope Initiative to help churches move from being inwardly focused to being outwardly focused. Over 1,500 congregations thus far embraced the 30-day challenge. Many of the churches reached young adults and older teens for the first time in years. The words of Jesus in Matthew 9:37-38 are still powerfully relevant today: “When he saw the crowds, he had compassion on them, because they were confused and helpless, like sheep without a shepherd. He said to his disciples, ‘The harvest is great, but the workers are few. So pray to the Lord who is in charge of the harvest; ask him to send more workers into his fields’” (NLT).
- Approximately 15,000 churches in America will no longer be able to pay a full-time pastor. Of the 375,000 congregations in the U. S., we estimate that four percent of them will no longer have the funds to compensate a full-time pastor. This shift is enormous, and it might be more significant. Since over one-half of churches today do not have the budget to pay full-time pastors, we can easily see the part-time pastor model becoming the dominant model.
- The term “bivocational pastor” begins to disappear. That term needs to go away because it is no longer relevant. “Bi” means “two,” and many part-time pastors have more than two jobs. The more accurate term is “co-vocational,” which is a broad term with many possible meanings. For example, I am friends with a person who serves as a pastor of two congregations while holding down a full-time job in the business world. He is actually closer to a modern-day manifestation of the circuit rider pastor who rode on horseback to serve different churches. Churches should prepare for this transition to the part-time pastor model. It is already the model in a majority of churches. It will soon become the dominant model.
- The median time a church will have between pastors will be longer than 18 months. Indeed, a growing number of churches will do without a pastor for two years or more. The role of the interim pastor will be even more critical in 2025. And frankly, denominations and networks must be prepared to resource co-vocational churches, circuit-rider churches, and interim churches to be relevant to the congregations they serve. The day of churches with a full-time pastor serving in traditional-model churches is going away soon.
- About 15,000 churches will close. Many of these churches held on tenaciously, but the number of congregations facing imminent closure has grown. For the first time in modern church history, 15,000 of the churches will cease to exist in a period of one year. Notice that we are projecting that 15,000 churches will close and that 15,000 will move from full-time pastors to part-time pastors. Those 30,000 churches represent about one out of twelve existing churches. The change is dramatic.
Though the challenges are significant, I remain an obnoxious optimist about the future of congregations in America. Let me hear your perspective in the comments below. What do you think about the five issues I noted? What would you add to the list of significant changes?
Posted on December 30, 2024
With nearly 40 years of ministry experience, Thom Rainer has spent a lifetime committed to the growth and health of local churches across North America.
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10 Comments
With more pastors reaching retirement age than those that are entering the ministry, some of these issues will continue. Vacancies between permanent pastors will be longer simply because there aren’t enough clergy in the first place.
I have served in a two point parish and a three point parish in my years of ministry. One of the issues that congregations face when they decide to enter into this model is there has to be a clear understanding of this being a “shared” ministry of the congregations involved in the sharing of pastor(s) and potentially other staffing and programming. The most frequent problem I’ve dealt within these shared ministry contexts has been the perception the larger church (or the one that perceives itself to be the larger church) wants the others involved to pay “their fair share” to help balance their own budget, but is then the first to complain when the other congregations actually need the services of the pastor, be it with having to adjust expectations on Sunday morning (the pastor can’t stay for coffee because he or she needs to travel to the next church), having to negotiate Sunday service times, congregational meetings, and other pastoral needs during the week.
Congregations that enter these arrangements without having these realities and expectations laid out for them, and know right from the start there are some things that pastors in years gone by did that a pastor in a shared ministry context will not be able to do today, are going to struggle, and can quickly lead to burnout on the part of the pastor, and lead down the road to eventual closure.
Congregations that enter these arrangements and see a potential to truly partner and share resources with a neighbor for the sake of extending the kingdom, and providing better programming for their congregation (combined youth ministry that involves more youth, women’s and men’s ministries, mission trips, etc.) will thrive beyond surviving.
You made this statement in your item 2., above: Since over one-half of churches today do not have the budget to pay full-time pastors, we can easily see the part-time pastor model becoming the dominant model. I do not see your claim that “over 1/2 of churches do not have the budget to pay full-time pastors” supported elsewhere in your article. I may have missed it, but could you clarify that statement, especially in light of the “375,000 congregations in the U. S.” that you mentioned. It is often helpful to compare statistics from one year to the next; do you have the same kind of information for previous years?
This is super interesting and why I offer my services from preaching to systems to churches for free if needed.
Very relevant and very sobering, Thom. Having moved to KY this year and looked for a church, we’ve visited several that are certainly candidates for a co-vocational pastor and maybe even a circuit rider! Hopefully not for closing their doors!
Next week I begin interim ministry in a church that fits what you are describing. They are no longer able to pay a full-time pastor. I’m praying we can revitalize the ministry enough that they will be able to do so.
Grateful for your commitment and ministry, Bill.
4 of these 5 trends are just a continuation of the last 20+ years. The one that is truly different is the receptivity of GenZ. I see it in my church, but I don’t understand the mechanism for this in the wider culture beyond the Holy Spirit. Maybe the disillusionment and nihilism has reached a tipping point.
I have looked for a Church to serve for almost 2:year. I have two Masters degrees and one year of my PhD work complete. I have three streams of income I make a very comfort living. I don’t need a salary from any Church.
I have been a Sr. Pastor, Pastor, Bi-Vocational Pastor, Associate Pastor and Youth pastor and a Minister of Education. I did what God lead me to do. Every places that I served had a 25 -50% increase every year. I think you are spot on. But George Barna told us this is the 90’s. It didn’t happen then and if “The Church would do what it is suppose to do. Then being a Great Commission Church that we were called to do.
Thank you, Andy.
How do I contact you?. I tried and ran into a lot of obstacles.
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