I love solid research. This new release is absolutely incredible.
I am grateful to Exponential for engaging LifeWay Research to discern current levels of church health according to a number of factors. While worship attendance trends over a three-year period were a primary indicator of health in this study, the Exponential research also included conversions, income, and staffing in the data.
In addition to the categorization of churches as declining/subtracting (Level 1), plateauing (Level 2), and growing/adding (Level 3), the study looked at two other supplemental categories. A Level 4 (reproducing) church places a high value and priority on starting new churches. A level 5 (multiplying) church takes church planting to multiple generations of congregations.
The accuracy of this research cannot be overstated. LifeWay Research phoned 1,000 Protestant pastors. Quotas were used to maintain the correct population of each church size. Responses were weighed by region to reflect more accurately the total U. S. population. The sample provides a 95% confidence that the sampling error does not exceed +/- 3.2%. This information from the statistical nerds assures us the study is very accurate.
Here are some of the fascinating findings:
- 70% of churches are subtracting/declining or plateauing. Only 30% are adding/growing based on Exponential’s categorization of churches which is defined above. This data is largely consistent with other research we have done. The period covered is three years.
- There are relatively few reproducing churches. The research categorized only 7% of the churches as reproducing (Level 4). The numbers of churches considered multiplying (Level 5: multiple generations of church plants) was 0% in the sample, indicating a negligible number in the total U. S. church population.
- The majority of Protestant churches had less than 10 people commit to Jesus Christ as Savior in the past 12 months. That’s fewer than one person per month. That’s not good. That’s not good at all.
- Smaller churches are at severe risk. Among those churches with an average worship attendance under 50, only 20% are growing. That is the lowest of any of the categories of churches and is an indicator that these churches are at the greatest risk of dying.
- Larger churches have a much lower risk of dying. Among the churches with an average worship attendance of 250 and more, 42% are growing. That is, by far, the largest number of growing churches in any category.
I am grateful to Exponential for initiating this research. Their focus was to discover congregations exhibiting Level 4 and 5 behaviors. In other words, they want to learn more about churches that are reproducing and churches that are multiplying.
But the study also gave us more insights into the challenges before us to see churches revitalized. Seven of ten churches in America are declining. That is the challenge. The opportunity is a renewed interest in both church planting and church revitalization.
Thank you, Exponential and LifeWay Research. I encourage you readers to look at the totality of the Exponential research here.
One final note: Exponential’s FREE online assessment to discover your church’s Level 1 through 5 behavior is available here.
Posted on March 6, 2019
With nearly 40 years of ministry experience, Thom Rainer has spent a lifetime committed to the growth and health of local churches across North America.
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23 Comments
Hello. I recently found this blog and have enjoyed reading it. I grew up as a PK, now a married adult in a white-collar career, and I’m fascinated as I watch the American church go through all these changes.
If a stagnant church is thinking about doing more outreach or even doing a revitalization, there’s one huge question they need to ask themselves: “why are we doing this?” And be honest about it. What is motivating this initiative now instead of five years ago? Odds are it isn’t evangelism, or they would have been doing it all along. What has prompted the effort at this moment?
If their answers are along the lines of… “because the billls aren’t getting paid”…. “because no one knows we’re here”…. “because the church down the road is outperforming us”… “because most of our members will be dead in a decade”…. or any other such reason…. this will lead to disaster. Churches who do these things are simply recruiting people as a means to an end. If paying the bills (or losing the property) is on your mind, you will unwittingly treat new people like an ATM machine. If you like the old system but you need younger people to replace the dying generation, you will unwittingly treat new people like pets.
I’m not saying you have to go all seeker-friendly with fog machines to get younger members. But I don’t want to attend your church because a hyper-controlling old woman wants more silent faces in her SS class. If your system isn’t working, please don’t waste my time with clever marketing to get me in the door and then I see your terrible system.
Unless the goal of the outreach is truly about evangelism and discipling, it won’t work.
A small church is not broken. The key is to help small be healthy. My desire is to be great while being a “small” church. I would rather hear more topics on encouraging and resourcing the small church. We need to to rediscover what’s great about being a small church.
Whew, ok, … it feels better to get that off my chest.
Wow, I read this and immediately thought a lot of churches are battling just to survive, I’m sure a lot of small church pastor’s of churches under 100 active members are feeling overwhelmed, I know I do. We don’t talk about multiplying or funding a new church plant, we don’t have the $$$, we’re trying to stay alive, pay the bills, and do the ministries we feel God has called us to do and build toward the future. And all the time we’re getting older, as well as being more and marginalized in a “tolerant” culture.
I think the stats cited are symptoms of congregational health status which result from more or less due focus by local churches on the four main/basic problems all social systems (purposeful people-groups, or groups of 2+ people existing with a mission to accomplish) everywhere must deal well with in order to sustain their existences over consecutive years: integration, motivation, adaptation, and goal achievement. Typically, congregations are not structured, staffed, or budgeted for addressing those four problems well or realizing their great results directly. Instead, churches do whatever they do and hope for the best, working harder but seeing fewer results–and those indirectlt. But it does not at all have to be the way that the stats now describe in zip codes that are not declining in terms of their populations, even if the demographics of those zip codes are changing. The tried-n-true 5-Step Realville Ministry Model blessed by the Lord when implemented by local churches during the past 100 years is a great way to start, and today is a great time to 🙂
By the way, the work of our friends Kenneth Priest and John Rothra (who posted comments above yesterday) is some of the essential “Ing” factor of the change equation (Problem x Solv x Ing) > Resistance = Change. No “Ing,” then no change.
Change management research shows that it is not enough only to identify problems (which sometimes happens in these blog threads)–or even only to offer viable solutions to problems identified (which also sometimes happens here); instead, diagnosing organizational health for the causes of dissatisfaction/dysfunction experienced (i.e., the stats listed above by Thom) to determine an accurate prognosis of the matter if the cause is not treated AND ALSO prescribing effective therapy/ies for treating the causes of dissatisfaction/dysfunction diagnosed AND ALSO then actually treating those diagnosed causes with the therapy/ies prescribed until organizational health is restored (monitoring and adjusting as we go) EACH ARE essential factors in overcoming the resistance of dysfunction and change (i.e,. a self-sustaining new condition) taking place. Studies show that secular business leaders also often get the “Ing” part wrong but that it is addressed more/better by them (cf., e.g., Sasser, et al in What Great Service Leaders Know and Do; Pfeffer and Sutton, The Knowing-Doing Gap: How Smart Companies Turn Knowledge into Action). Not easy, but simple.
The Holy Bible’s Great Commission really is about local churches “Ing-ing” 🙂 Ing today.
Again: (Problem x Solv x Ing) > Resistance = Change
Working with ethnic Church/Congregations nearly 30 years now it is unfortunately normal to see so little information or stats either as a whole or ethnically individual. Was there any breakdown or recognition for ethnic context.
There is a context behind each of these, but the research unequivocally show two things:
1. We need to work hard to maintain a gospel-centered focus
2. There is potential (it’s not hopeless).
Wow, seams like #3 is the key. If sharing Christ is the priority the other points would steadly Increase.
Thom,
How do we get a copy of the actual report? I just looked at Lifeway Research web site.
Thanks DC
Contact Exponential. They actually own the report.
Thanks!
Dr. Rainer,
Relating to the smaller churches, how much of a factor does changing demographics play? What I mean to say is that urban and suburban areas in our part of the world are growing tremendously, whereas many rural areas are drying up. It seems as if people are moving closer to their places of employment. How does this factor into the data? I guess my question is comparable to what Kenneth Priest asked. It does seem like more people are moving to urban and suburban areas en masse, so the church eventually become more urban rooted.
Brian –
Since this research is Exponential’s, I would need for them to explore that question. I do know from Mark Clifton’s research seven of ten churches that closed are in communities with a population of 100,000 or more.
I appreciate the stats. However, with the stats must come the story. Here would be my further questions on stats:
Q1) On point 4 re: smaller churches, the question is on community. Where are the churches located? Often we point to smaller churches being the ones in highest risk, however in my experience (23+ years in working with turnaround in churches) many of these churches are in smaller community contexts, have much less overhead, much less population growth, and therefore actually will have less opportunity for growth. They may be a plateaued church, but they are no where near death/dying. They can last for generations like this.
Q2) On point 5 re: larger churches, same question on community. Where are the churches located? A church running more than 250 already leans toward being in a larger community, population growth, and thereby more opportunities for growth numbers. As such, presumed longer viability due to continued influx of people.
Just a couple of points to consider.
Thanks, Kenneth. I’m sure the leaders at Exponential are following these comments.
You are so RIGHT! The stats mean nothing without the story. The WHY of decline is in the story, but is rarely discussed. Often presumed, but rarely discussed. For the story, you need to talk to more than the pastors. I’d be interested in the stats of churches that underwent the interim process. How many of them went on to thrive? How many were gone within 10, 15, 20 years?
Hello Kenneth and Judith, you make helpful points. LifeWay Research used a verified protocol to match the size and location of churches to have a solid representation for the landscape of churches throughout the US.
At Exponential, the focus of our commissioning of this study was to measure the number of churches Reproducing (“Level 4”) and Multiplication (“Level 5”) across America. We had to begin with the number of churches Declining (“Level 1”), Plateaued (“Level 2”) and Growing (“Level 3”).
Our core “why” or story, is the good news is we are seeing more churches Reproducing than when we started this research earlier in the decade. The core finding of this study is that 7% of churches are now reproducing. While there is increase in multiplication behavior in the American church, we know this must continue to increase if we are going to advance the Kingdom in our generation.
Dr. Rainer, is there a tool that Association Mission Strategists (DOM) can use to make the same determinations using ACP data n order?
Brian –
You can contact Exponential to find out if you could use their research template.
Here is a recent study I did on SBC churches: https://thomrainer.com/2017/06/dispelling-80-percent-myth-declining-churches/
Hello Brian, our Exponential team would be glad to see what resources we have that can serve you. We have several assessments as well as this research protocol that could be helpful. Email me if you would like to talk more.
I think you’d be interested in the work that Flourishing Congregations are doing in Canada. Their research is fascinating. Might be a valuable tool or interesting comparatives. http://www.flourishingcongregations.org/
Outstanding! Thank you, David.